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Archive for the 'Market Stats & Trends' Category

TREB Housing Stats / November Sales Strong

December 3, 2010 — Greater Toronto REALTORS reported 6,510 existing home sales in November – down 13 per cent from 7,446 sales in November 2009. New listings were also down 13 per cent annually to 8,642.
On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales increased for the fourth straight month to 88,100. This rate was substantially higher than the July low of 67,900.
“The GTA resale market has tightened since the summer. Healthy market conditions continued to support growth in the average selling price,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.
“Sales through the first 11 months of the year were down only marginally compared to the same period in 2009. We remain on track for one of the best years on record under the current TREB market area,” continued Johnston.
The average selling price for November transactions was $438,030 – up five per cent compared to November 2009.
“The average selling price in the GTA is affordable. A household earning the average income can comfortably cover the mortgage payments on an average priced home. Expect the average selling price to grow at a moderate pace over the next year,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Median Price In November, the median price was $366,000, from the $353,800 recorded during November of 2009.

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October Price Growth Reflects Healthy Housing Market Conditions

November 3, 2010 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,681 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2010. This represented a decrease compared to the 8,476 sales recorded in October 2009. (A very healthy period)  Through the first ten months of the year, sales amounted to 75,582 – up one per cent compared to the January through October period in 2009.

“The annual change in sales and average selling prices has been quite uniform across the GTA and by property type as the market has balanced out from record levels of sales in the second half of 2009 and first few months of 2010,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.

“The composition of GTA home sales does differ depending on location. Condominium apartments accounted for 42 per cent of total sales in the City of Toronto and almost 60 per cent of sales in TREB’s central districts,” Johnston continued. “In regions surrounding the City of Toronto, in contrast, low rise home types accounted for almost 90 per cent of transactions.”

The average price for October transactions was $443,729 – up five per cent compared to the average of $423,559 reported in October 2009. The average selling price through the first nine months of the year was $430,802.

“The average selling price in the GTA has continued to grow relative to 2009 because home ownership has remained affordable,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “A household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments associated with the purchase of an average priced home.”

“The outlook for mortgage rates and income growth over the next year is favorable. The average home selling price could increase moderately next year and remain affordable for the average GTA household,” continued Mercer.

There are numerous buyers who are quite prepared to participate in multiple offers for the right home. Good homes are still selling for very good prices. The centre core of OurHomeToronto continues to be an excellent investment.

Buying or Selling … Call on our Services for a Search or Opinion of Value;

Jim

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Why rising rates haven’t hurt housing

BY: ROB CARRICK   / Globe & Mail (September 9, 2010)

So much for the housing market being crushed by rising interest rates.

The Bank of Canada cranked up its trendsetting overnight rate for the third time in four months on Wednesday and the impact will be felt by a wide range of borrowers. But home buyers? Not so much.

True, the central bank’s increase of one-quarter of a percentage point has already been applied by the major banks to their prime lending rate. That in turn means variable-rate mortgages, plus lines of credit, are now a quarter-point more expensive.

But there are two trends that offset higher carrying costs for variable-rate mortgages. One is that fixed-rate mortgages, notably in the popular five-year term, have been coming down in recent weeks and are now as low as 3.59 per cent. That’s a fabulous rate, by the way.

The other trend is a return to previous levels of discounting in variable-rate mortgages. With their usual dexterity, the banks used the financial panic of 2008 and early 2009 to ram through higher lending costs on a variety of products, including variable-rate mortgages. Now, some of these rate hikes are being unwound.

MorCan Direct, a Toronto mortgage broker, notes that pricing on variable-rate mortgages has over the past 20 months fallen from prime plus a full percentage point to prime minus as much as 0.65 to 0.8 of a point. The level of competition in the mortgage market suggests to MorCan’s Travis Allinott that by next year we’ll see banks offering their best precrisis deal on variable-rate mortgages – prime minus one percentage point.

“We definitely believe it’s going to get back to prime minus 1,” Mr. Allinott said “It’s a rate war out there.”

Wherever variable-rate mortgages end up, it’s clear that pricing trends in the marketplace are offsetting the Bank of Canada’s rate moves to some extent.

On the fixed-rate side, there have been at least four rounds of rate cuts by the big banks since the end of May. Last week, Bank of Montreal lowered its special five-year rate to 3.59 per cent from 3.79 per cent (note: this rate applies only to 25-year mortgages and offers limited prepayment privileges). Back in May, discounted five-year mortgages went for something like 4.7 per cent.

Lenders price fixed-rate mortgages off the yield on Government of Canada bonds, not the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Bond prices have been rising lately, which means yields have fallen because the two move in opposite directions.

Things get a bit weird here because good times for bonds have lately coincided with bad times for the economy. And yet, the Bank of Canada is confident enough about the economy to have raised rates repeatedly.

Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, explains that trading in Canadian bonds is heavily influenced by what’s happening in the U.S. market. Down there, of course, there’s a lot of worry about a return to recession – the dreaded double dip.

The Canadian economy has slowed, too, and nowhere more markedly than the housing market. This was widely predicted many months ago, but ironically it was rising interest rates that were supposed to drive the decline.

Mr. Alexander said rising rates have had only a very small negative impact on house prices. More important factors have been a rise in the inventory of homes for sale, a rush to buy in 2009 and early 2010 when rates were at rock bottom, and the expectation that rates would rise.

Today, he sees rates as being supportive of housing. “Rates are remarkably low by historical standards. People get so hung up on the direction of interest rates. The level matters.”

Rates will increase from here, but Mr. Alexander doesn’t seem them as a major problem for housing.

“The fact that rates are low and likely to rise at only a gradual pace in the next 18 months suggests you really aren’t going to get a major correction in the housing market,” he said. “What you’re going to get is a period of softening, some declines in sales and a modest correction in housing prices. But after such a strong run, you could expect that.”

Interested in variable-rate mortgages even though they’re captive to the Bank of Canada’s rate moves? Mr. Allinott suggested starting with a one-year closed mortgage, which you may be able to get for as little as 2.44 per cent. In a year, he suggests jumping into a variable-rate mortgage.

Variable-rate mortgages could be more costly then, but pricing pressure might just get you a prime-minus-1 deal.

The year in interest rates

 
  Year ago Early 2010 2010 peak Today
             
BoC overnight rate 0.25% 0.25% 1% 1%    
             
Prime rate 2.25% 2.25% 3% 3%    
             
Posted five-year fixed-rate mortgage 5.49% 5.49% 6.25% 5.39%    
             
Source: Bank of Canada            

For the full article please visit http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20100909.GICARRICK0909ATL/TPStory/TPBusiness/

Call on our services for a fully informed,  strategic approach to marketing your home or finding you a new one .

Visit www.OurHomeToronto.com  for Real Time Mapped MLS Listings in your desired neighbourhood.

Cheers;

Jim … 416-931-4161

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Home Prices Up – Unit Sales Down August 2010 vs 2009

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,232 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August 2010. This represented a 22 per cent decrease compared to the 8,035 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. New listings decreased by one per cent year-over-year to 10,488.

“The prospect of interest rate hikes and new mortgage lending rules prompted some households to purchase a home sooner than they otherwise would have this year. The result has been a larger than normal dip in sales over the summer months. With this said, it is important to recognize that sales on the year were eight per cent higher than in 2009,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.

The average price for August transactions was $411,012 – up six per cent compared to the average of $387,921 reported in August 2009.

 
“Market conditions have remained tight enough to support higher home prices in comparison to last year. Under current mortgage lending standards, a household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments on an average priced home. Market conditions and the affordability picture would have to change dramatically before a sustained drop in the average selling price would take place,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

MEDIAN PRICE
In August, the median price was up $358,000, from the $338,000 recorded during August of 2009.

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Toronto Real Estate Board Market Watch Trends – July, 2010

Market Watch statistics and reports are provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board. Each neighbourhood district in Toronto is broken down showing sales,  listings activity & ratios … all subdivided by Freehold and Condominiums.

We follow these market statistics closely in order to be as current as possible while preparing Comparative Market Analysis and Opinions of Value. The market is of course driven by what buyers are willing to pay for any given home compared to what other properties are offered for. It’s is all about supply and demand and finding the best possible value from all the buyer has to choose from.

Buyers simply don’t pay tens of thousands more if they don’t have to. I recommend to all sellers that they acknowledge the market trends but even more importantly they see first hand at least 6 properties that compare to their own. Only by seeing what other buyers see can they truely understand the market value that their home may command. 

Good Realtors spend a great deal of time staying ahead of their competion  by knowing how to read the market. Coming up with a recommended Opinion of Value is more than filling a sellers head with great promise. Our job is not to tell you what you want to hear but on many occasion to tell you what you need to hear. Accepting reality will sell one’s home much faster, with fewer conditions and for the best possible price.

JAMES R. METCALFE    REALTOR® BROKER  //  Character + Competence = Trust

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Market Trends / July / Toronto Real Estate Board

The charts are in … Year to date home sales in numbers and dollars in Toronto are up. Yes July was down some 35% over last July but when compared to July 2008 (a more relevant comparison) all is even. Our Toronto Real Estate market is somewhat insulated from other Canadian and World markets. Demand is still very strong for land, homes and condos in OurHomeToronto. We are in a balanced market with both buyers and sellers / supply and demand even. Pundits are forecasting an active Fall with more listings coming to market.  Mortgage brokers and financial institutions indicate  that Fall interest rates will remain very attractive and may even go down slightly.
Buying or Selling this Fall is a good time to come to market.

These statistics come directly from the Toronto Real Estate Board every month for your convenience.

Thank you for subscribing … Jim

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